“This summer’s armed incursion into Georgia and Moscow’s saber-rattling elsewhere have prompted many observers, including myself, to warn of a newly muscular Russia willing to threaten or commit military force. But there’s another important set of facts to understand about Russia that modifies that threat calculation significantly. Russians are in danger of dying off. The hard numbers show Russia’s population has been declining precipitously since the Soviet Union imploded, down from almost 149 million in 1992 to 142 million at the end of last year – an average loss of approximately 700,000 people a year. The United Nations and other organizations have warned that if it stays on the current demographic path, Russia’s populace will shrink by a third, to less than 100 million by 2050. By comparison, the U.S. has more than 300 million, and China has 1.3 billion people. Part of an alarming worldwide trend, Russia’s birthrate is well below that required – 2.1 children per woman – just to maintain the population with neutral growth. Currently, Russian women average 1.3 births in their lifetime, which is not enough to keep up. For a variety of reasons, none understood very well, many Russian women are deciding to have one or no children. The death rate is really the dark side of the equation. For every 100 babies born in Russia, 150 people die. Since the 1960s, the life expectancy and overall health of Russian males has been sliding downward. Today, a typical Russian male lives to the ripe old age of 59, which puts the country far down, No. 166 in the rankings, alongside poorer African nations. Political economist Nicholas Eberstadt says, "Russia is virtually the only industrialized society where such a thing has ever taken place in peacetime, and death rates for men and women of working ages are vastly higher, and for certain age groups, over twice as high as they were 40 years ago." A big part of the problem is the long-held tradition of heavy alcohol use and regular binge drinking, particularly among men. The ravages of vodka, however, are compounded by a runaway AIDS epidemic, alarmingly high rates of heart disease, tuberculosis and other illnesses. Health researchers are still trying to understand why Russian men in their productive years succumb to health complications at far higher rates than in other developed countries. They’re calling this "hypermortality." According to a recent U.N. study, "Compared to the majority of countries that have similar levels of economic development, mortality in Russia is 3 to 5 times higher for men, and twice as high for women." The report warns that Russia’s working-age population will decline by 1 million each year by 2020 to 2025. These are staggering numbers, and even though Moscow is trying to reverse them with financial incentives for childbirth, Russia’s future still looks dark, indeed. So, while Russian troops occupy sovereign parts of Georgia, Russian bombers take to the skies on patrol, and Putin looks warily at Ukraine, Russia’s population is shrinking, and the "flower of Russian manhood" is slowly dying off.”
http://www.thespectrum.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081016/OPINION/810160317/1014/OPINION
